Choices

There have been articles in recent days from several writers saying that the Celebration Bowl is a better experience than the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) playoffs.

The FCS is the 128 or so Division 1 football teams that do not participate in the bowl system, with one caveat. The Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) and Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) opt out of sending their conference champions to the 24-team FCS playoffs in favor of playing in the Celebration Bowl. Schools in those conferences are referred to as Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCU).

The Celebration Bowl drew over 40,000 fans to Atlanta this year, and netted the two conferences $1 million each. In contrast, no FCS stadium is large enough to hold that many fans, and it is not a financial bonanza for teams involved.

Jim Trotter of the Athletic eloquently lays out the almost religious reasoning in favor of the Celebration Bowl, the Black College Football National Championship, without prefacing it by slamming the FCS playoffs. But he still concludes, "Celebration Bowl or FCS playoffs? Do you really need to ask?"

"There's no comparison," FAMU head coach Willie Simmons told Gerald Thomas III of the Tallahassee Democrat. "The experience that the guys get at the bowl, playing on national television in an NFL stadium - it's an experience you can't buy. And once the check clears, that'll be more reasons why people feel the Celebration Bowl is the better option."

OK, if that is what you prefer, fine. But some people want it both ways. They want to play in their bubble in Atlanta but still be presumed to be FCS elite. Thomas quotes former FAMU Coach Rudy Hubbard saying, "I believe Willie and Florida A&M could go into [the FCS playoffs] and win that thing, too."

We have a team we can use to help us figure out whether that is remotely true. North Carolina Central won last year's Celebration Bowl and was favored to represent the MEAC again, but Howard pulled an upset and took that slot. Since they didn't have anything else to do, NCC was selected as an at-large team in the FCS playoffs and promptly got housed by Richmond 49-27. Richmond then got housed by Albany 41-13. Albany beat Idaho but then got epically HOUSED by South Dakota State 59-0. Using the transitive properties of comparative scores, FCS #1 South Dakota State is 109 points better than NCC. Coming back to the real world, which is dominated by degenerate gamblers, the Sagarin ratings indicate SDSU would be a 34-point favorite over NCC, 31 over FAMU, and 39 over Howard.

Simmons says, "In the FCS playoffs, you're going to have to travel to someone else's place; it's going to be cold and outside. It's Thanksgiving weekend." Except that's not true if you don't belong to a crap conference. If you are seeded, you don't have to play Thanksgiving weekend and you play the next weekend at home. (Also, four northern teams that hosted playoff games have domes, but whatever.)

Stan Becton of NCAA.com wrote an article laying out the case that FAMU should be rated as high as #3 when the final polls come out, behind SDSU and the Montana Griz. One of his examples is they should be ranked ahead of Montana State because the Bobcats didn't make it out of the 2nd round of the playoffs. FAMU didn't make it out of the 2nd round either since they chose not to participate at all!

Becton also knocks Albany for losing 59-0 to SDSU. But FAMU didn't drag their asses onto an airplane and go play SDSU after a long trip the previous week to Idaho, so what is the comparison? FAMU's only loss was to FBS South Florida, which was a mediocre 6-6. FAMU is wise enough not to schedule any MVFC or Big Sky opponents, so all we can go by besides subjective opinions is the objective ratings. Sagarin suggests an appropriate FCS rating for FAMU would be #46 and they would be a 21-point underdog to Montana State, 10-point underdog to Albany. Other rating services are more generous, but none place FAMU higher than 9th.

Make your choice. If your conference chooses to play in the Celebration Bowl, take your million dollars and be quiet. The best conferences in FCS are the Missouri Valley, the Big Sky, and the Coastal. The MEAC and the SWAC are the third and fourth WORST. If you want to prove otherwise, stop talking and put your best teams in the tournament.

Update: Voters were not convinced by Becton's arguments. In the two final polls, FAMU was #10 and #11. Here's your (non-)Participation Trophy.